What’s happening for the rest of the Monsoon season?
The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued an updated Monsoon forecast for the rest of the summer.
Here are some highlights:
- All the rain we had in June and early July was not really the Monsoon. It was actually a pattern that resembles the Monsoon!
- La Nina is having an effect on our Monsoon, which is pushing it a little later in the season and may increase precip chances! Yay!
Here is the month by month Monsoon forecast:
The remainder of July: Forecast confidence is high for above-average precipitation and slightly above-average temperatures for central and northern NM. Not every location will see above-average rainfall; however, as steering flow combines with complex terrain, giving much more rain to some and not to others. The monsoon high is currently beefier than average due to an Asian-Pacific/polar and subtropical jet streams that remain slightly more robust than average thanks to a now-defunct El Niño. In other words, the Asian-Pacific jet stream aligns with sinking air or subsidence from thunderstorms in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern is sometimes referred to as the “reverse monsoon” because the monsoon high remains over the Great Basin (roughly NV/UT) for much of July and August, allowing backdoor fronts to provide low-level Gulf moisture to NM from the southeast, east, and northeast.
August: Forecast confidence remains high for above average precipitation and near to slightly below average temperatures.
September: Forecast confidence is moderate to high for near to slightly above-average precipitation and close to somewhat below-average temperatures during the first two weeks of the month. Southern and eastern NM stand the best chances for above-average rainfall in September.